Credit Risk Models - Do They Deliver Their Promises? A Quantitative Assessment

We develop a framework to assess the statistical significance of expected default frequency as calculated by credit risk models. This framework is then used to analyze the quality of two commercially available models that have become popular among practitioners: KMV Credit Monitor and RiskCalc from Moody's. Using a unique database of expected default probability from both vendors, we study both the consistency of predictions and their timeliness. We introduce the concept of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP), which allows to see in one curve the percentage of companies whose defualts were captured by the models one year in advance. We also use the Miller's information test to see if the models add information to the S&P rating. The result of the analysis indicates that these models indeed add relevant information not accounted for by rating alone. Moreover, with respect to rating agencies, the models predict defaults more than ten months in advance on average.credit risk models, cumulative accuracy profile, risk modeling

Multi-scale simulations of black hole accretion in barred galaxies: Self-gravitating disk models

Due to the non-axisymmetric potential of the central bar, barred spiral galaxies form, in addition to their characteristic arms and bar, a variety of structures within the thin gas disk, like nuclear rings, inner spirals and dust-lanes. These structures in the inner kiloparsec are most important to explain and understand the rate of black hole feeding. The aim of this work is to investigate the influence of stellar bars in spiral galaxies on the thin self-gravitating gas disk. We focus on the accretion of gas onto the central supermassive black hole and its time-dependent evolution. We conduct multi-scale simulations simultaneously resolving the galactic disk and the accretion disk around the central black-hole. We vary in all simulations the initial gas disk mass. As additional parameter we choose either the gas temperature for isothermal simulations or the cooling timescale in case of non-isothermal simulations. Accretion is either driven by a gravitationally unstable or clumpy accretion disk or by energy dissipation in strong shocks. Most simulations show a strong dependence of the accretion rate at the outer boundary of the central accretion disk ($r< 300~\mathrm{pc}$) on the gas flow at kiloparsec scales. The final black hole masses reach up to $\sim 10^9 M_\odot$ after $1.6~\mathrm{Gyr}$. Our models show the expected influence of the Eddington limit and a decline in growth rate at the corresponding sub-Eddington limit

The Nonprofit sectors' rich relations? Foundations and their grantmaking activities

This chapter outlines and critically discusses the grantmaking foundation arena. After highlighting practical, conceptual, and definitional challenges presented by the foundation field, the chapter traces the historic shift in emphasis from an operating to a grantmaking foundation model and the characteristics, opportunities, and obstacles inherent in grantmaking. Thereafter, attention shifts to the extent and nature of foundations’ resources and provisions. Do these live up to popular perceptions? What social and moral challenges do they present? Moving to questions of whether foundations present private or public goods, the chapter reviews the different roles and purposes ascribed to foundations, and the extent to which these are fulfilled. Concluding, the chapter points to recent developments in the foundation field that emphasize more pragmatic and engaged grantmaking approaches as a potential way for addressing some of the tension highlighted throughout the chapter.Postprin

Philanthropy and community development : the vital signs of community foundation?

This self-funded research builds on earlier support for the study of community foundations within philanthropy from the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), grant reference RES-593-25-0004.Increased funding pressures on community development and reductions in governmental funding for community support suggest potent roles for philanthropy as a funding source, and the possibility of changing relationships between community development and philanthropy. Focusing on English community foundations and their implementation of the Canadian Vital Signs initiative, which is geared towards assessing communities’ vitality and social priorities, our article explores whether, and how, such changes may be occurring. Using the literature on the respective value of ‘unsettling’ and ‘settled’ third sector organisations to community development, we reflect on the roles and contributions of community foundations to community development through community philanthropy. Vital Signs reports’ content indicates donor-led community philanthropy associated with ameliorative rather than fundamental social change positions, as well as uncertainty surrounding community leadership in this context. We identify community foundations as ‘settled’ organisations within the community development spectrum and as reflecting the ‘directed’ community development form. In this instance, it appears that the philanthropy-community development gap that we suggest is at best being partially bridged. Nevertheless, and paradoxically, these organisations’ achievement of financial security through community donorship could also strengthen their community leadership roles in ‘unsettling’ ways, so doing more to lessen philanthropy and community development’s separation.PostprintPeer reviewe

Towards Social CRM – Scoping the Concept and Guiding Research

Web 2.0 and Social Media (SoMe) provide new opportunities for collaboration and co-value creation which supports a customer-centric management. Social Customer Relationship Management (SCRM) addresses these opportunities and aims at a high stakeholder engagement as a means to establish mutually beneficial relationships. At present, scholars attempt to comprehend what constitutes SCRM. This paper reviews state-of-the-art scholarly literature to provide a consolidated view on the current SCRM knowledge base. It reveals concurrent opinions, diverging perceptions and future directions for research along the dimensions SCRM definitions, objectives and approaches. We conclude that SCRM as a novel concept requires transformational efforts among all organizational parts. Approaches towards SCRM align on organizational determinants, CRM processes, the customer relationship lifecycle or develop conceptual models. We propose that research further explore this domain to progress the understanding of SCRM as basis for corresponding frameworks

Providing foundations : philanthropy, global policy and administration

Philanthropy is gaining renewed policy prominence. Focusing on the institutional expressions of philanthropy – philanthropic foundations – this chapter critically explores foundations’ various contributions to, and roles in, global policy. Emphasising the need to move beyond traditional perspectives, dominant focal points and well-established questions around philanthropy, the chapter argues for more synthesised, critically reflective, engagement with philanthropy in global policy research. To this end, the importance of examining historic antecedents of contemporary developments in philanthropy and the need for a stronger evidence-base are outlined. The chapter concludes by discussing the spectrum of research opportunities philanthropy provides for the global policy and transnational administration field.Postprin

Philanthropy Education in the UK and Continental Europe: Current Provision, Perceptions and Opportunities

This research aims to capture the current state of teaching about philanthropy at European universities. It sets out to identify the countries, institutions and disciplines in which philanthropy education currently takes place, and the levels at which the subject is taught. In addition to mapping and surveying the teaching terrain, the research seeks to capture the perspectives of informed stakeholders, and to discuss some implications for the development of philanthropy education in Europe. The paper addresses the following questions: What is the scale and scope of teaching about philanthropy at European universities today?What are some of the perceptions of the rationale for philanthropy education and the barriers and opportunities for its growth and development?What are some of the implications of the data for a) the future development of philanthropy education in Europe b) further research in this are